Abandoning the Vista Ship

Dell started supplying Linux (without Windows) to its customers a while ago. Now it's started supplying XP instead of Vista. What does that mean?

What happened is the OEMs revolted in the background and forced Microsoft's hand. This is a big neon sign above MeII saying 'FAILURE'. Blink blink blink. OK, MeII won't fail, they have OEMs whipped and threatened into a corner, it will sell, but you can almost hear the defectors marching toward Linux. This is a watershed.

— Microsoft admits Vista failure, By Charlie Demerjian in Beijing, The Inquirer, Saturday 21 April 2007, 12:20

Demerjian says another big sign is that Gates went to China and announced a $3 price for Vista, down from about $300.

Demerjian's interpretation of these two developments?

These two actions by Microsoft are proof of what I suggested three years ago. Microsoft has lost its ability to twist arms, and now it is going to die. It can't compete on level ground, so is left with backpedalling and discounts of almost 100 times.

As Dan Geer has been saying for years, Microsoft has a bit of a problem. Either it stonewalls and pretends there is no security problem, which is what Vista does, by taking over your computer to force patches (and DRM) down its throat. Or you actually change the basic design and produce a secure operating system, which risks people wondering why they're sticking with Windows and Microsoft, then? It turns out the former course may also result in the latter result:

If you fit Microsoft's somewhat convoluted definition of poor, it still wants to lock you in, you might get rich enough to afford the full-priced stuff someday. It is at a dangerous crossroads, if its software bumps up the price of a computer by 100 per cent, people might look to alternatives.

That means no MeII DRM infection lock in, no mass migration to the newer Office obfuscated and patented file formats, and worse yet, people might utter the W word. Yes, you guessed it, 'why'. People might ask why they are sticking with the MS lock in, and at that point, it is in deep trouble.

Monopolies eventually overreach themselves and die. Maybe it's finally Microsoft's time to die. That would decrease the risk to the rest of us.

-jsq

Comments

[denis bider]

This kind of thinking is somewhat self-deluding. By dropping the price to $3 for the Chinese, Microsoft is doing The Right Thing(TM). Dropping the price is a logical consequence of MS's greater ability to enforce anti-piracy, and is the right thing to do. Software needs to be priced according to the value it adds to the buyer. The value added depends on the buyer, and in dollar terms it is very different in China than in the United States. Forcing the Chinese to pay $300 is counter-productive. It only encourages competition and piracy.

Aside from a few geeks with a penchant for hating Microsoft, I don't know any lay people who have seen Vista and aren't enthusiastic about it. As a security professional, I recommend Vista over XP because of improved security.

As far as I can tell, Microsoft has been doing things right the past several years. Expecting the empire to fall "any day now" is just so much wishful thinking.

[Mike]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. This blog entry simultaneously blasts Microsoft for having expensive software AND for lowering the price of Windows in China to $3. So no matter what they do they're wrong.

I work in information security and I'm very happy with the improvement in security from XP to Vista. It's not perfect - but neither is *nix or any other commercial operating system. I think the comment '...stonewalls and pretends there is no security problem, which is what Vista does' is wholly inaccurate. Vista gets in the user's face about security, prompting to identify networks, alert the user when potentially malicious activity occurs, etc.

Try Vista before you slam it, please.

[Mark]

I too work in security products. Vista is "insecure" aside, Linux is simply not much better - you don't think there can be email worms on Linux? You think the acroread/pdf vulnerabilities found on Windows are absent in their Linux counterparts?

And security aside, I just don't see how Linux being a viable replacement of Windows (at least for desktop). I've been developing SunOS/Solaris applications for 15 years now, and Linux applicance for the last 2 years, I still have trouble figuring out Linux desktop's (gnome, etc, all of them) many kinks. Good luck having moms and pops figuring those out.

I agree with the other comments: "MS is dying" is just wishful thinking; a company whose product has 95% market share and still agressively persuing advancement, that's hard to defeat.

[denis bider]

Oh, hey, what's this?

"Sales of Windows Vista have helped Microsoft post a forecast-beating 65% rise in third-quarter profits."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6598025.stm

[no one]

Who doesn't work in information security?

Every Vista user is now required to be a security expert since nearly every security related decision is thoughtlessly presented to the user in the form of a popup box that locks out any other action. I'm pretty sure that every secretary or soccer Mom would make the right choice given the complete situation, but several thousand innocuous popup boxes later when the one chance to answer "no" actually pops up that might prevent a truly malicious act, the habit of smacking yes in frustration is so ingrained, the user clicks yes.

THAT is what Microsoft calls "security". Color me unimpressed, to say the least.

[jsqrisk]

Well, that was a fun Vista fan party!

My response:

http://riskman.typepad.com/perilocity/2007/05/do_or_dont.html

-jsq

[Malvolio]

"Maybe it's finally Microsoft's time to die."

From your keyboard to God's ear...

[Joel "Jaykul" Bennett]

Too bad the naysayers can't even get their stories straight. The $3 OS is Windows XP -- $3 for a six year old OS that's (finally) been superseded by a new version is hardly an admission of failure. Quite the opposite: it's a clever marketing and political move designed to indoctrinate millions into Windows who would otherwise be forced to use Linux on their dirt-cheap trailing-edge desktops ...

Dell's been selling SLES on their servers for years ... putting it on their desktops seems more like an act of desperation than some reaction to Vista. Dell's shipments in the U.S. fell 14 in Q1 this year, while HP's shipments jumped 26 percent.

Microsoft's revenues are up 11% -- draw your own conclusions.