Perilocity

Iranian Internet Disturbances

Here's an example of some Internet routing in Iran, in this case on the way to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday 15 June 2009. Normally, routing and latency don't change much. Starting Saturday 13 June, the day after the election, routing and latency have become increasingly disturbed. More here.

Twitter Reschedules

Twitter recognizes that a network upgrade is important, but the role twitter is playing in Iran is more important, and reschedules for 1:30 AM Iranian time. Now that's risk management!

Would that U.S. states had all rescheduled Diebold and the like to the junk heap after the 2000 U.S. election.

Also notice who twitter's hosting service is: NTT America. I've been predicting for years that the U.S. duopoly's intransigence would lead to NTT and other competent international ISPs eating their lunch, and I see it's beginning to happen.

-jsq

Van Meter on Barabasi and Doyle on Internet topology and risks

Rodney Van Meter, co-teaching a class by Jun Murai, posts notes on why Albert-László Barabási (ALB) is both right and wrong about the Internet (it is more or less a scale-free network when considered as a network of Autonomous Systems (AS), but contrary to ALB's assumption John Doyle and others have pointed out that the bigger nodes are not central, an AS as a node would be somewhat difficult to take out all at once, there are both higher and lower layer topologies that make the Internet more robust, and the Internet's biggest problem isn't topology at all:

The most serious risks to the Internet are not to individual "nodes" (ASes), but rather stem from the near-monocropping of Internet infrastructure and end nodes, and the vulnerability of the system to human error (and political/economic considerations):

Monoculture, who would have thought it?

For that matter, the Internet's ability to reroute has been very useful to ameliorate topological link breaks at the physical layer, for example undersea cables in the Mediterranean Sea twice last year.

MySpace Anti-Phishing

Shing Yin Khor of Fox Interactive Media, which owns MySpace, gave an entertaining talk at APWG in which she gave a good case that MySpace has mostly eliminated phishing ads on MySpace and is busily suppressing other phishing.

Throwing money at the issue of phishing actually works.

MySpace's anti-phishing forces include former law enforcement people, including a former federal and state prosecutor, a former L.A. D.A., and a former FBI agent. They have successfully sued spam king Scott "ringtones" Richter and his CPA empire.

MySpace does have an advantage in actually hosting all displays and messages. It's good to be a many-hundred-million shopping mall. She didn't say that; I did. She did say they use MySpace specific measures such as education via Tom's profile. Tom was one of the founders of MySpace. Every new user gets Tom as a friend, so his online persona (pictured) has 240 million friends, so that's a channel that reaches most of their users. She did say:

Education is just as important as technical measures.

What works on MySpace will work on other social network sites.

But Shing's theme of pro-active measures against phishing and spam is one other organizations could take to heart. Don't think you can do nothing: you can.

Of course, if you have fewer than 200 million users, you may want to band together with other organizations, for example by joining APWG. Even MySpace does.

Debunking the Tragedy of the Commons

Interesting article here making a point that should have been obvious for forty years. When Garrett Hardin published his famous article about the "tragedy of the commons" in Science in December 1968, he cited no evidence whatsoever for his assertion that a commons would always be overgrazed; that community-owned resources would always be mismanaged. Quite a bit of evidence was already available, but he ignored it, because it said quite the opposite: villagers would band together to manage their commons, including setting limits (stints) on how many animals any villager could graze, and they would enforce those limits.

Finding evidence for Hardin's thesis is much harder:

The only significant cases of overstocking found by the leading modern expert on the English commons involved wealthy landowners who deliberately put too many animals onto the pasture in order to weaken their much poorer neighbours’ position in disputes over the enclosure (privatisation) of common lands (Neeson 1993: 156).

Hardin assumed that peasant farmers are unable to change their behaviour in the face of certain disaster. But in the real world, small farmers, fishers and others have created their own institutions and rules for preserving resources and ensuring that the commons community survived through good years and bad.

Debunking the `Tragedy of the Commons', By Ian Angus, Links, International Journal of Socialist Renewal, August 24, 2008

So privatization is not, as so many disciples of Hardin have argued, the cure for the non-existant tragedy of the commons. Rather, privatization can be the enemy of the common management of common resources.

What does this have to do with risk management? Well, insurance is the creation of a managed commons by pooling resources. Catastrophe bonds are another form of pooled resources, that is, a form of a commons.

On the Internet, the big problem with fighting risks like phishing, pharming, spam, and DDoS attacks is that the victims will fail if they go it alone. The Internet is a commons, and pretending that it isn't is the problem. Most people and companies don't abuse the Internet. But a few, such as spam herders and some extremist copyright holders (MPAA, RIAA), do. They need to be given stints by the village.

-jsq

Fast Flux Mapped

Australian HoneyNet tracks Fast Flux nodes and maps them:

Below is the current locations of the storm Fast Flux hosts. This is updated every 15 minutes from our database.

I Had to change it to only show the last 6 hours of new nodes since GoogleMaps doesn't scale very well when your reaching past a few thousand markers on a map :)

—Fast Flux Tracking, Australian HoneyNet Project, accessed 7 Aug 2008

Fast Flux, in case you're not familiar with it, refers to various techniques used by bot herders, spammers, phishers, and the like to evade blocking by rapidly changing which IP addresses are mapped to which domain names.

-jsq

U.A.E. Cable Cut of 30 Jan 2008

There's been a lot of talk about the numerous cable cuts in the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf in the past few weeks. It's interesting to see the Internet route around damage. Here is a visualization of the first cable cut, off Alexandria, on 30 Jan 2008.

-jsq

Web Panopticons: China and U.S.

Fergie points out a university project investigating censorship:

The "Great Firewall of China," used by the government of the People's Republic of China to block users from reaching content it finds objectionable, is actually a "panopticon" that encourages self-censorship through the perception that users are being watched, rather than a true firewall, according to researchers at UC Davis and the University of New Mexico.

The researchers are developing an automated tool, called ConceptDoppler, to act as a weather report on changes in Internet censorship in China. ConceptDoppler uses mathematical techniques to cluster words by meaning and identify keywords that are likely to be blacklisted.

— University Researchers Analyze China's Internet Censorship System, News Report, Government Technology News, Sep 11, 2007

So the Great Firewall of China watches what users are doing by actively intercepting their traffic. Meanwhile, back in the U.S. of A., how about a passive web panopticon?

Skype and Windows Update

So, Windows update: Skype outage cause or smokescreen?

Apparently both:

The disruption was caused by a routine Windows patch update distributed Tuesday that required users to restart their computers. When a large number of Skype subscribers began logging back in around the same time, the requests - combined with the day's traffic patterns - began overwhelming the system, revealing a bug in the software that normally helps the system allocate resources and "self heal."

"Skype has now identified and already introduced a number of improvements to its software to ensure that our users will not be similarly affected in the unlikely possibility of this combination of events recurring," Skype spokesman Villu Arak said.

— Skype reveals outage source, tells customers it won't happen again, Ryan Kim, San Francisco Chronicle Staff Writer, Tuesday, August 21, 2007

So we seem to have here a combination of hazards tripping each other.

This does raise the more general question of what other bugs are synchronized Windows updates exercising? And how long before such a Windows update installs a vulnerability that immediately gets exploited? And how long before such updates themselves do cause massive outages? In software monoculture, Windows may be its own boll weevil.

-jsq

Bill Gates Considered as Evil Primitive Bacterium

Has Freeman Dyson become an evolution denier?

Whatever Carl Woese writes, even in a speculative vein, needs to be taken seriously. In his "New Biology" article, he is postulating a golden age of pre-Darwinian life, when horizontal gene transfer was universal and separate species did not yet exist. Life was then a community of cells of various kinds, sharing their genetic information so that clever chemical tricks and catalytic processes invented by one creature could be inherited by all of them. Evolution was a communal affair, the whole community advancing in metabolic and reproductive efficiency as the genes of the most efficient cells were shared. Evolution could be rapid, as new chemical devices could be evolved simultaneously by cells of different kinds working in parallel and then reassembled in a single cell by horizontal gene transfer.

But then, one evil day, a cell resembling a primitive bacterium happened to find itself one jump ahead of its neighbors in efficiency. That cell, anticipating Bill Gates by three billion years, separated itself from the community and refused to share. Its offspring became the first species of bacteria—and the first species of any kind—reserving their intellectual property for their own private use. With their superior efficiency, the bacteria continued to prosper and to evolve separately, while the rest of the community continued its communal life. Some millions of years later, another cell separated itself from the community and became the ancestor of the archea. Some time after that, a third cell separated itself and became the ancestor of the eukaryotes. And so it went on, until nothing was left of the community and all life was divided into species. The Darwinian interlude had begun.

— Our Biotech Future, By Freeman Dyson, New York Review of Books, Volume 54, Number 12 · July 19, 2007

Has he sold out for an admittedly very fetching simile?