Perilocity

Rip van Security

Gunnar Peterson asks a question:

...how do you primarily rely on network security as we have done for the Web's life, when the Cloud abstracts the network away?

Gunnar points out IT security has been using firewalls and SSL as primary security for every network acccess software change since 1995.

In 1999 when SOAP emerged as a firewall-friendly protocol designed for the explicit reason to go through the firewall, that should have been a wake up call to Information Security that the "firewall + SSL" security architecture was past its prime, but here 10 years later we are still hitting the snooze button.

Here many years after we lost email for everybody but aging geeks and banks, IT security continues to snooze like Rip van Winkle. While the world changes around it:

"A cyber czar is fighting a network with an org chart."

Good point.

Iranian Internet Disturbances

Here's an example of some Internet routing in Iran, in this case on the way to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Monday 15 June 2009. Normally, routing and latency don't change much. Starting Saturday 13 June, the day after the election, routing and latency have become increasingly disturbed. More here.

Twitter Reschedules

Twitter recognizes that a network upgrade is important, but the role twitter is playing in Iran is more important, and reschedules for 1:30 AM Iranian time. Now that's risk management!

Would that U.S. states had all rescheduled Diebold and the like to the junk heap after the 2000 U.S. election.

Also notice who twitter's hosting service is: NTT America. I've been predicting for years that the U.S. duopoly's intransigence would lead to NTT and other competent international ISPs eating their lunch, and I see it's beginning to happen.

-jsq

Pirate Party Legitimized by Winning EU Parliament Seat

There's lots of academic and commercial effort put into stopping software and other intellectual property piracy, especially for videos. A form of risk management, I suppose, but one that ignores the much bigger risk to traditional intellectual property of causing political blowback such as what just happened in Sweden:

“Together, we have today changed the landscape of European politics. No matter how this night ends, we have changed it,” Falkvinge said. “This feels wonderful. The citizens have understood it’s time to make a difference. The older politicians have taken apart young peoples’ lifestyle, bit by bit. We do not accept that the authorities’ mass-surveillance,” he added.

Funny thing about what happens when the majority of the population participates in an illegal activity: eventually it's not illegal anymore.

At least partially, The Pirate Party puts its increased popularity down to harsh copyright laws and the recent conviction of the people behind The Pirate Bay. After the Pirate Bay verdict, Pirate Party membership more than tripled and they now have over 48,000 registered members, more than the total number of votes they received in 2006.

With their presence in Brussels, the Pirate Party hopes to reduce the abuses of power and copyright at the hands of the entertainment industries, and make those activities illegal instead. On the other hand they hope to legalize file-sharing for personal use.

Many of those abuses of power probably already are illegal; the appropriate laws just aren't being enforced. We saw this during alcohol prohibition in the U.S., and we see it now with marijuana prohibition in the U.S. The first prohibition ended, the second probably will, and meanwhile, online "piracy" is on its way to being redefined.

-jsq

MySpace Anti-Phishing

Shing Yin Khor of Fox Interactive Media, which owns MySpace, gave an entertaining talk at APWG in which she gave a good case that MySpace has mostly eliminated phishing ads on MySpace and is busily suppressing other phishing.

Throwing money at the issue of phishing actually works.

MySpace's anti-phishing forces include former law enforcement people, including a former federal and state prosecutor, a former L.A. D.A., and a former FBI agent. They have successfully sued spam king Scott "ringtones" Richter and his CPA empire.

MySpace does have an advantage in actually hosting all displays and messages. It's good to be a many-hundred-million shopping mall. She didn't say that; I did. She did say they use MySpace specific measures such as education via Tom's profile. Tom was one of the founders of MySpace. Every new user gets Tom as a friend, so his online persona (pictured) has 240 million friends, so that's a channel that reaches most of their users. She did say:

Education is just as important as technical measures.

What works on MySpace will work on other social network sites.

But Shing's theme of pro-active measures against phishing and spam is one other organizations could take to heart. Don't think you can do nothing: you can.

Of course, if you have fewer than 200 million users, you may want to band together with other organizations, for example by joining APWG. Even MySpace does.

APWG Atlanta Buckhead

Five years of the Anti-Phishing Working Group! Dave Jevans gave a retrospective, followed by country reports:

Japan: Pretending to be grandchild to get bank account transfer is popular. ATM scams are the most lucrative.

Russia: Second biggest global source of spam. Ecrime economy is ten times the si ze of the anti-ecrime industry, and that's a problem.

Brazil: Most phishing is done locally. Is all organized crime.

I don't want to go into too much detail, even though the bad guys don't seem to need any help. APWG continues to climb the ecrimeware curve, catching up with th e miscreants.

Further Hardin Debunking

Regarding Perry's comment to the previous post, the point is that the specific example on which Hardin based his thesis, the one everyone cites in support of it, is not borne out by the evidence, not that he presented any evidence for it in the first place.

Further, that it's not a tragedy in the sense Hardin meant: that of a Greek tragedy in which a flaw of character inevitably leads to the demise of the protagonist. Individuals are not inevitably disposed to claw out their own at the expense of everyone else. Sometimes people realize that there really is such a thing as the common good; that benefiting everyone benefits themselves.

Yes, I know about the Sahara and the Sahel; I've been there; I've seen the goats gnawing away at everything.

The solution is not state central planning: you cite Chinese lakes; I'll cite the Aral Sea.

The solution is also not privatization of the commons: look at the wildfires in the U.S. west exacerbated by subdivisions built in forests.

Solutions that work seem to involve combinations of innovation, education, and especially cooperation. Like this one:

In the late 1970s, when the problems of desertification, combined with population growth, drought and grinding poverty in West Africa first began to get sustained global attention, the prognosis was mostly gloom and doom. And as has been well documented, foreign aid has been less than successful in improving matters. In Yahenga, Reij and Fabore note, efforts to modernize agriculture through large-scale mechanized operations usually failed, for a variety of reasons. The spread of zai hole planting spearheaded by Sawadogo was mostly carried out by the local farmers themselves, with limited support from the government or foreign donors. Those with access to labor dug the holes, and used local sources of organic manure to fill them.

A tree grows in the Sahel, Andrew Leonard, How the World Works, Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2006 11:22 PDT

The "free market" isn't enough. Cooperation on scales from local to global is also needed. And it does happen, despite Garrett Hardin's myth that it can't.

-jsq

Debunking the Tragedy of the Commons

Interesting article here making a point that should have been obvious for forty years. When Garrett Hardin published his famous article about the "tragedy of the commons" in Science in December 1968, he cited no evidence whatsoever for his assertion that a commons would always be overgrazed; that community-owned resources would always be mismanaged. Quite a bit of evidence was already available, but he ignored it, because it said quite the opposite: villagers would band together to manage their commons, including setting limits (stints) on how many animals any villager could graze, and they would enforce those limits.

Finding evidence for Hardin's thesis is much harder:

The only significant cases of overstocking found by the leading modern expert on the English commons involved wealthy landowners who deliberately put too many animals onto the pasture in order to weaken their much poorer neighbours’ position in disputes over the enclosure (privatisation) of common lands (Neeson 1993: 156).

Hardin assumed that peasant farmers are unable to change their behaviour in the face of certain disaster. But in the real world, small farmers, fishers and others have created their own institutions and rules for preserving resources and ensuring that the commons community survived through good years and bad.

Debunking the `Tragedy of the Commons', By Ian Angus, Links, International Journal of Socialist Renewal, August 24, 2008

So privatization is not, as so many disciples of Hardin have argued, the cure for the non-existant tragedy of the commons. Rather, privatization can be the enemy of the common management of common resources.

What does this have to do with risk management? Well, insurance is the creation of a managed commons by pooling resources. Catastrophe bonds are another form of pooled resources, that is, a form of a commons.

On the Internet, the big problem with fighting risks like phishing, pharming, spam, and DDoS attacks is that the victims will fail if they go it alone. The Internet is a commons, and pretending that it isn't is the problem. Most people and companies don't abuse the Internet. But a few, such as spam herders and some extremist copyright holders (MPAA, RIAA), do. They need to be given stints by the village.

-jsq

Tokyo in May: CeCOS II

26-27 May 2008 in Tokyo:

The second annual Counter-eCrime Operations Summit (CeCOS II) will engage questions of operational challenges and the development of common resources for the first responders and forensic professionals who protect consumers and enterprises from the ecrime threat every day. This year's meeting will focus on the development of response paradigms and resources for counter-ecrime managers and forensic professionals. Presenters will proffer case studies of national and regional economies under attack, narratives of successful trans-national forensic cooperation as well as models for cooperation and unified response against ecrime and data resources for forensic activities.

— Counter-eCrime Operations Summit II, APWG Japan, 2008

The Anti-Phishing Working Group continues to expand via national associates, and to put on good workshops.

-jsq