Is a Four-Fold Increase a Risk?

This one pretty much speaks for itself:

More than land-use changes or forest management practices, the changing climate was the most important factor driving a four-fold increase in the average number of large wildfires in the Western United States since 1970, the researchers concluded.

The average spring and summer temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees higher in Western states between 1987 and 2003 than during the previous 17 years. In fact, the seasonal temperatures were the warmest since record-keeping started in 1895, the researchers said.

While the researchers stopped short of linking increased wildfire intensity to global warming caused by rising levels of greenhouse gases, they were confident that they had documented a broad climate trend and not a fluke of natural weather variability.

Wildfire Increase Linked to Climate Higher temperatures over 34 years -- rather than land-use changes -- have led to more blazes, researchers say. They're sure it's not a fluke. By Robert Lee Hotz, Times Staff Writer, L.A. Times, July 7, 2006

And it's a feedback loop:

Moreover, as more forests do burn, the destruction of so much biomass will release massive amounts of carbon dioxide, further accelerating the increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and helping to further increase temperatures.

Western forests account for as much as 40% of all the carbon sequestered in the U.S.

"Lots of people think climate change and the ecological responses are 50 to 100 years away," said research team member Swetnam.

"But it's not 50 to 100 years away. It's happening now in forests through fire."

Could this be a business risk?

What's this got to do with the Internet? Well, it's only through the Internet that I heard about this, and the same is probably true for many of us.

-jsq